The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted US shale oil production will double by 2035. This refers to oil found in low-permeability reservoirs such as shale and chalk formations, the largest new source of U.S. crude oil supply. The EIA base case suggests U.S. output from this source will more than double to 1.23 million barrels per day by 2035. This year production is expected to be 720,000 bpd, or 12.5% of domestic production. The EIA looked at output from the Bakken in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, the tight oil plays in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico and the Monterey shale in California, among others. The EIA’s latest report does not include projected production from the Utica shale deposits in Ohio.

Still with the EIA, TheTrucker highlighted the agency’s prediction that the US will be relying less on foreign oil in future. Over the next 25 years the US will experience modest growth in its demand for energy which, along with increased production of both domestic crude and natural gas, will reduce the country’s reliance on foreign oil. Moreover, natural gas production will exceed demand enabling the US to become a net exporter of this commodity. The EIA concludes: “With modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic production and continued adoption of non-etroleum liquids, net imports of petroleum and other liquids will make up a smaller share of total U.S. energy consumption.” The EIA further notes that both federal and state government policies (such as automobile fuel economy standards and energy efficiency programs) are reducing the demand for energy in the US. You can access the EIA’s latest Annual Energy Outlook here.  See also Bloomberg, US energy use to slow, get cleaner.

At the EIA website you can learn all about shale gas and why it is important for North America’s energy future. A combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies have unlocked massive shale reserves in the United States and Canada and upended oil markets by adding a surplus of oil and gas that is now flooding the market.

The Calgary Herald said we are redrawing North America’s energy map. “New oil supplies, retooled refineries and rerouted pipelines are changing the continent’s energy landscape.” The “explosion” of shale oil production in North Dakota, Alberta and Saskatchewan coupled with Alberta’s massive oilsands are altering traditional petroleum routes and bringing new markets into play both within the continent and abroad. The post lays out possible scenarios for the oilsands including supplying the west coast of the US, the US Gulf coast and Eastern Canada. See also fuel fix Nation’s energy transportation getting a revamp which focused on the changes to pipelines and railroads in the US to accommodate these dramatic changes to the continent’s energy resources. In a different post the same source looked at the impact on automobile transportation from the natural gas revolution: Energy and Transportation

A controversial new study by the Harvard Kennedy School forecasted a sharp increase in world crude oil production capacity and the risk of an oil price collapse. The findings by Leonardo Maugeri, a fellow in the Geopolitics of Energy Project in the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s major oil formations and exploration projects. “Contrary to some predictions that world oil production has peaked or will soon do so,  Maugeri projects that output should grow from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110 million barrels per day by 2020, the biggest jump in any decade since the 1980s. What’s more, this increase represents less than 40 percent of the new oil production under development globally: more than 60 percent of the new production will likely reach the market after 2020.” The study attributes the expected growth in oil output to a combination of high oil prices and new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing that are opening up vast new areas and allowing extraction of “unconventional” oil such as tight oil, oil shale, tar sands and ultra-heavy oil. These increases are projected to be greatest in the United States, Canada, Venezuela and Brazil. “His findings have major implications for geopolitics, suggesting important shifts in how countries interact and wield influence” said Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project. At the above link you can view a video interview with the author and download the study Oil: the next revolution. The study is not without its detractors from the Peak Oil supporters including Oil glut forecaster Maugeri admits duff maths by David Strahan and The Oil Drum Response to Leonardo Maugeri’s Decline Rate Assumptions in “Oil: The Next Revolution”.

The “glut” of oil and gas in North America will also have international implications. The PanArmenian told us U.S. energy strategy is detrimental to Russia while the Business Standard suggested the US may be India’s future gas source and The Wall Street Journal observed As U.S. Leaves, Oil-Hungry China Stuck in Middle East. Finally, the Energy Tribune added Irony of Ironies: Europe Switches to Coal as US Gas Glut Reduces Emissions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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