OilSlick tells us that a recent study by Deutsche Bank showed oil production declines for the majority of the world’s top 40 companies. This includes Canadian oil sands producers, Russian firms and Brazilian giant Petrobras.  The declines are across the sector except for US shale oil drillers.

 

BP (BP) -11% (-254,000 bpd)
ENI (ENI) -19% (-187,000)
Total (TOT) -10% (-130,000)
Repsol (REPYY) -26% (-117,000)
Suncor (SU) -23% (-113,000)
Lukoil (LUKOY) -6% (-103,000)
Conoco (COP) -10% (-95,000) Sold to Lukoil
Canadian Natural (CNQ) -29% (-93,000)
Statoil (STO) -8% (-76,000)
Chevron (CVX) -2% (-44,000)
Murphy Oil (MUR) -29% (-38,000)
Hess (HES) -12% (-37,000)
Occidental (OXY) -6% (-33,000)
Sinopec (SHI) -2% (-16,000)
Woodside -26% (-16,000)

Total production decline in top 15 producers:  -1,352,000 bpd. 

High oil prices should encourage supply but non-OPEC production is not keeping up with demand.  An important factor is the decline for permits to drill in the Gulf of Mexico fallowing the BP disaster.

Deutsche Bank also found that demand destruction equated to $4 per US gallon.  This occurs when Brent crude is in the $120 to $140 per barrel range and when West Texas crude is in the $100 to $120 range.

OilSlick’s read on this:

It is easy to say there are a lot of new projects in the pipeline.  There are always new projects in the pipeline because that is the only way an oil company can stay in business.  I think the point from the list above is that the new projects are not keeping up with shrinking production from existing fields.

On the same theme, UPI reports that Indonesia’s oil production is in decline.  The country will have to reduce its dependency on oil and move to natural gas.

“…the future of Indonesia’s oil and gas industry will be dominated by gas,” said BPMigas spokesman Gde Pradnyana.

Earlier this year the Indonesian government projected that the country’s oil production would reach 970,000 barrels of oil per day but cut the target to 945,000 barrels because most of the foreign and indigenous major oil companies failed to reach production goals.

Over the past decade Indonesia’s proven oil reserves had declined by 2.4 percent per year. While last year Indonesia produced 344 million barrels of oil, new discoveries totaled 140 million barrels.

Once Southeast Asia’s only member of OPEC, the oil price rises following the 1973 OPEC boycott provided the country with an export revenue windfall that contributed to sustained high economic growth rates, averaging more than 7 percent from 1968 through 1981. Indonesia left OPEC three years ago, half a decade after it became a net oil importer.

In a related story, Environmental News Network refers to a report from the Worldwatch Institute showing that world oil consumption reached an all-time high in 2010.  World demand was 87.4 million bpd, up 3.1% from 80.3 million bpd in 2009.  Co-author of the report, Natalie Narotzky, comments that “…it is clear that the momentum of future market growth has moved to the developing world, where oil consumption did not miss a beat during the recession and shows no sign of slowing.”

Oil consumption in countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was more than 7 percent lower in 2010 than in 2005, while consumption in non-OECD countries is up 20 percent since then.

One third of the increase in consumption came from China, which now uses over 10 percent of the world’s oil.

Other items of interest:

In 2010, oil remained the largest source of primary energy use worldwide, but its share of this use fell for the eleventh consecutive year, to 37 percent. Coal and natural gas are second and third respectively.

The Middle East remains the largest exporter of oil with 35.3 percent in 2010, followed by the former Soviet Union and the Asia Pacific region.

Canada’s oil sands now contribute around half of that country’s crude oil production and are expected to provide a growing share.

More on the WorldWatch Institute report here and here.

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