Several posts appeared this week about weak EV sales this year. The Australian said Electric car market faces rocky road in US  while Consumer Affairs says the Outlook for electric cars remains hazy. In addition we have a survey from the American Automobile Association reported by The Auto Channel:

…eight out of ten U.S. adults are unsure about or unlikely to buy an electric vehicle (EV) and 30 percent of them say it is due to mileage limitations and availability of charging stations locations….The AAA survey also finds many consumers citing the higher cost in general of an electric vehicle as a reason they would be unlikely to make such a purchase.

Consumer Affairs also notes that people who have leased the Chevrolet Volt in the US are trying to get out of their lease after only 12 months into their 36 month lease. For the Toyota Prius hybrid this number is at only 9 months.

Things are not much better in China.  The China Post wrote Like US, China slow to embrace electric vehicles. “Despite choking pollution in big Chinese cities, consumers here see EVs as too expensive or too difficult to recharge.” Even with the availability of large government subsidies, total sales of hybrid and electric vehicles last year were 12,791, according to the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers. However,  the real number of electric vehicles sold in China last year was only about 3,000, when factoring out hybrids and vehicles that aren’t roadworthy, such as golf carts, according to Namrita Chow, a Shanghai-based analyst for IHS Automotive.

Navigant Research thinks the situation in Europe may be different with higher petrol prices than North America driving EV demand, says The Auto Channel. Navigant believes national energy policies in Europe coupled with increasing availability of electric vehicle charging infrastructure will encourage strong growth in the market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). It expects sales of PEVs will grow from fewer than 37,000 in 2012 to more than 669,000 in 2020. The top six European countries for battery electric vehicles on the road in 2020 will be Germany, France, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Sweden, with this group representing more than 67% of the total European market. You can access the report here.

Next Generation Transportation News reports the US federal government is adding 10,000 hybrid EVs to its fleet of vehicles. The addition of these vehicles is expected to reduce gasoline consumption by about 1 million gallons annually.

Energy Live News tells us police in The West Midlands of the UK are leasing 30 new electric cars from Nissan for patrol duty. In 2009, this police force became the first in the country to operate an electric patrol car. The  Nissans offer a range of between 70 and 80 miles from a full battery charge. The cost to fully charge the battery is £1.75 compared to a full tank of petrol which costs around £50.00.

The next electric car breakthrough will be short distance vehicles according to plugincars. The post refers to a triall by Toyota in Japan to focus on supplying EV service (electric car or electric bike) for the “last mile” rather than a long trip. The idea is to move people from their homes or businesses to public transportation rather than for long trips where range anxiety sets in.  Using smart cards or other devices, people would rent the EV on a short-term basis to move them that mile or two where they could connect with public transportation.

In a transportation context, it (the last mile) applies to the tremendous potential for carbon reduction and other benefits if public transit and city centers can be made accessible to the masses of people who live a mile or two away.

SKIFT tells us that in Norway early adopters of electric cars are rich, urban, educated men.

NewsDaily informs us that Hong Kong has its first electric taxis. 45 bright red  BYD e6′s are now operating in the Chinese city. The electric cars have been rented by the Hong Kong Taxi and Public Light Bus Association, which is testing them over the next six months. The sedans are powered by iron phosphate batteries and take two hours to charge, They can then travel for 300 kilometres (more than 180 miles).

Post Danmark has its first of 50 new electric vans reports Post & Parcel. The Mercedes-Benz Vito E-Cell vehicle joins an existing fleet of 1,700 electric bikes and 100 electric scooters. The postal operator is installing vehicle charging stations in various delivery depots where the 50 electric cars will be operating. Powered by a lithium ion battery, the van has a range of about 100 km and the batteries can be recharged in 6 hours with a fast charging system.

The future of the automobile industry was the focus of a roundtable of experts at the Massachusetts Institution of Technology (MIT). BOLDRIDE summarized the discussion for us. Called Mass vs. Efficiency the panelists grappled with the conundrum of meeting new mileage standards set by the US while simultaneously adding new technology and the extra weight of required safety equipment. US auto sellers are required to meet the goal of a fleet average of 35.5 MPG by 2016 and 54.5 MPG by 2025. The key appears to be to find new ways to replace weight from automobiles.  One alternative is to use lighter materials.  GM and BMW are experimenting with carbon fibre. Volkswagon was highlighted for its use of aluminum extrusions which enable its XL1 to be capable of 200 MPG.  The panelists agreed that there is no magic bullet for reducing weight and that each auto company would have to come up with its own solutions for their vehicles. Another alternative is to introduce innovative powertrains such as the Volvo V60 Plugin.  Combining a diesel powertrain with plug-in capabilities and a hybrid powertrain, this vehicle achieves 125 MPG, with a 31-mile pure-electric range.

In a related post from Green Car Reports, Volkswagon talked about its future at the Vienna Motor Symposium. Going forward the company plans to introduce an eclectic mix of  plug-in hybrid cars, natural gas vehicles, diesels, and a new ten-speed dual-clutch transmission. Most of VW's plug-ins will feature an electric range of around 30 miles. Volkswagen's goal is to bring the carbon dioxide emissions of its European fleet down to as low as 95 g/km by 2020. Variable valve timing, high-pressure injection and an 'e-booster' electric turbocharger will all contribute to better petrol mileage. We also learn from The Bionenergy Site that Volkswagon is experimenting with biiodiesel made from wood. Finland-based biofuels producer UPM is working with VW to start fleet tests of renewable domestic diesel derived from forest waste. The tests will focus on engine functionality, consumption and CO2 emissions. Test vehicles will drive up to 20,000 kilometres within the Helsinki metropolitan area.

GEEKQUINOX says we may have flying cars by 2021. (see photo above and video) The US. company Terrafugia Inc. plans on producing a flying car that can be flown by anyone, and it should be ready as early as 2021. Its TF-X will be a small four-seater hybrid vehicle that will not only be legal to drive on streets and highways, but will also be able to take off and fly in the air. In order to take off and land, it will only need about 30 metres of level ground. In the air it can travel up to 315 km/h, and with a range of around 800 kilometres. The cost is likely to be between $500,000 and $1 million. See also Gadget Review, A New Hybrid for Land and Air TF-X Receives FAA Approval.

EV World explores The wild and wonderful electric cars of the future. How about folding wheelbases, 360 degree turning capability, strong, light weight materials, easy vehicle disassembly and recycling, in-wheel motors?

With so many competing transportation fuels on the market this decade (diesel, gasoline, natural gas, electricity, hydrogen), greener ideal explores the best way to compare fuel efficiency among alternative fuels . Until now we have used miles per gallon (MPG) or litres per 100 kilometers (l/100 km) as the means of comparing engine efficiency. That is changing with the introduction of electricity where MPGe (miles per gallon equivalent) has been introduced. For example, in the US the Toyota Prius Plug-In Hybrid is rated at 95 MPGe and the Tesla Model S 85kWh is rated at 89 MPGe. The writer of this post now offers another consideration. How about MPC or cents per mile? "What we really want to know is how much it’s going to cost for us to fill up every week." However, as the author acknowledges, this measure would fluctuate constantly as the price of fuel differs from day to day and from location to location.  Hence, there would have to be a continuous reassessment of efficiency comparisons among vehicles as the prices of gasoline, diesel, natural gas and electricity change. We really need an all-inclusive metric that relates distance, energy used and price to make an accurate comparison of vehicle efficiency.

Future Cars explains the bioethanol production process as well as why butanol is not a commercially available fuel.

Forbes looks at data that suggests e-bikes (electric bicycles) may be replacing cars in Europe. While car sales continue to decline in Europe, e-bike purchases are climbing. Navigant Research expects the growth of e-bikes in Europe to grow to between 1.0 million and 1.2 million sales in 2013.

Not every city is enamored with electric bikes. Gas2 tells us the US city of New York has increased the fine for riding an electric bike from $500 to $1,000, thereby preventing New Yorkers from adopting these bike/scooter hybrids. The city's decision follows on numerous complaints of pedestrians nearly being hit on the congested NYC streets, and bike lanes, by delivery men using electric bikes which can reach speeds up to 30 miles per hour. David Pollack from the Committee for Taxi Safety went so far as to say the bikes are “a menace to little children” and a “menace to society”.

REVE says EVs will only comprise between 2% and 10% of the global car population by 2035. A report by Innovation Electricity Efficiency says the higher number will only be reached if battery technology increases markedly. Lower battery cost (a significant portion of the EV total cost), greater range, and faster recharge times are critical if EVs are to become commonplace as hoped for by many governments and environmental groups. It turns out that the initial purchase price of an EV is more important to potential EV purchases than the price of oil (i.e. gasoline or diesel).

To overcome the initial price barrier for consumers, Mercedes-Benz is offering a lease the battery option for its Smart Fortwo EV in the US market. Earth Techling reports customers can buy or lease the vehicle with or without the battery.

The option, called Battery Assurance Plus, enables a customer to buy the vehicle only – without the battery – for $19,990 and separately rent the battery (the performance of which is guaranteed for up to 10 years) for $80 a month plus taxes. For leasing customers, the total monthly payment is $199 with the battery rental included. Battery Assurance Plus also covers annual maintenance on the battery and, if necessary, replacement. The rental contract for the battery is transferrable for up to 10 years with no mileage restrictions.

The Union of Concerned Scientists offers its views on the issue of EV range anxiety while plugincars educates us on what to expect from EV range now and over time. However, having read the latter article's discussion of battery degradation over time and then the comments on this aspect of the article, one begins to understand why people are not racing to their local EV dealer to trade in their internal combustion engine.  Confusion and lack of knowledge with complicated technology is a bane to product success.

Gas2 notes that the automobile aftermarket is coming out with EV accessories. One of the more popular accessories is a charging cord upgrade that facilitates 240 volt charging of the Nissan Leaf, Toyota Prius PHEV, MItsubishi i-MiEV, Chevrolet Volt, and Honda Fit EV.  For example, this upgrade will enable the Nissan Leaf to charge in four hours using a 240 volt, 30 amp outlet, rather than 7 to 8 hours on a household circuit.

Click Green gives us the top 5 green vehicles in the UK this year.  Its choices: Nissan Leaf, Peugeot iOn, Renault Zoe, Chevrolet Volt, and Citroen DS5 Hybrid 4.

It looks like something we will have to, but the only reason to do it is to meet government regulations. We don’t see it as a significant business.

If we want a realistic solution to emissions then the regulators need to be more honest in how they calculate emissions. Electric cars are not the answer.

–  Harald Webster, CEO of Fiat S.p.A.’s high-end subsidiaries Alfa Romeo and Maserati at the Shanghai Auto Show on why his firm will likely add hybrids to the lineup

Next Generation Transportation News looks into how US industrial freight carriers feel about liquified natural gas (LNG). A recent survey by PLS Logistics Services found there is “significant movement” toward the use of LNG in trucking operations in the US. The majority of fleet executives surveyed said they now believe that natural gas is a truly viable alternative to diesel and are looking at buying LNG powered trucks. However, the relative scarcity of LNG refueling infrastructure is still a hindrance to higher levels of natural gas vehicle adoption, along with the cost of natural gas engines and fuel systems relative to their diesel counterparts. You can read the survey here.

LNG refueling is going mobile in North America reports Next Generation Transportation News. Industry consultancy and research firm Zeus Development says recent survey findings suggest that up to 50 mobile liquefied natural gas (LNG) refueling units will soon be in operation in North America serving trucking fleets and other heavy-duty industrial applications. Some concepts rely on transport trailers for on-site storage, while others integrate storage tanks into self-contained transportable units. The most rapidly growing market for mobile fueling is from oil and gas exploration and production companies which require the fuel to produce electricity for drilling and hydraulic fracturing operations. Demand from long distance trucking operations is also growing quickly.

Energy Global tells us delivery company United Parcel Service (UPS) has signed a natural gas supply contract for its fleet operations in the US cities of Nashville and Knoxville, Tennessee. The 10-year contract calls for Pivotal LNG to provide UPS with an average of 500,000 gallons of LNG per month for its fueling stations, which UPS will own and operate. UPS is replacing its diesel vehicles in the area with less costly LNG.

Market Watch tells us natural gas vehicles (NGVs) will reach 7.5 million in the world’s 7 largest auto markets by 2020. A report from Lux Research said the main drivers behind NGV growth are fuel price differentials, payback period for premium-priced NGVs, and availability of fueling infrastructure. The seven key auto markets (U.S., Europe, China, India, Brazil, Russia, and Japan) account for 75% of vehicles on the road today. Despite the fact that natural gas sells at a discount to petrol, auto buyers are reluctant to convert to NGVs owing to user resistance to new vehicles and entrenched driving and fueling habits.

“Cheap natural gas is disrupting the electricity, chemical, and heating industries, but the impact on the transportation market has been minimal,” said Andrew Soare, Lux Research Senior Analyst and the lead author of the report titled, “Shale Takes on Automotive: The Future of Natural Gas Vehicles.” “Technical and economic challenges mean that’s likely to remain true – even if fuel splits widen.”

The US state of Indiana has passed legislation that creates a tax credit for the deployment of heavy-duty natural gas vehicles (NGVs) that exceed 33,000 lbs reports Next Generation Transportation News. The tax covers up to 50% of the incremental cost of a heavy-duty NGV that runs on either compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). The credit is capped at $15,000, and fleet operators and individuals can access up to $150,000 in credits per taxable year, from 2014 to 2016. The legislation also encourages state fleets to buy NGVs, propane autogas vehicles and other alt-fuel vehicles.

Russian automotive manufacturer GAZ Group has developed a CNG powered version of it’s medium-sized intercity bus model KAVZ-4238 we learn from NGV Global News. The 10 metre bus with a range of 400 km is designed for suburban and long-distance routes in Russia.

30 CNG buses hit the streets of the US state of Ohio this week reports Fox28. The CNG buses are expected to save the Central Ohio Transit Authority $21,000 a year in fuel costs over the replaced diesel buses.  Over the next 12 years the Authority expects to replace all of its 300 plus diesel buses with CNG.

Natural Gas Vehicles Texas Inc. is building large truck transport carriers that run on CNG and diesel says Dallas Business Journal. The truck runs on compressed natural gas and diesel at the same time. The fuels are mixed at the intake valve. This makes the truck distinctly different than a bi-fuel vehicle that runs on either natural gas or diesel-gasoline.

Platts notes that the US state of Texas has the most planned NGV fueling stations. The number of stations in the state able to supply natural gas motor fuel — LNG, CNG, or both — is expected to double from about 60 currently, to 122 over the next six to 18 months.

Some NGV facts

Richard Kolodziej, president of NGVAmerica, cited a recent study by PIRA Consulting that found that by the year 2030 as much as 5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas could be used in vehicles annually in the US. “That’s about a 25% increase in demand,” he said. Another study by the National Petroleum Council found that by 2050, “NGVs would capture 50% of the light- and heavy-duty truck market and 35% of the medium-duty market in the US,” Kolodziej said.

David Hurst, an analyst at Navigant Research in Troy, New York, said he expects the market for natural gas-fueled vehicles to grow substantially, albeit from a very small starting point. “Based on our estimates, we saw about 20,400 NGVs sold in 2012. That’s going to grow to about 40,000 vehicles in 2019.”

           Django Reinhardt New York City Festival – Dark Eyes

Russia will spend $21 billion through to 2015 for development of its nuclear power industry. The next generation nuclear power plants will be used to generate electricity and to desalinate water. They will also have updated safety features including double reactor containment, passive heat removal systems, and specialized cooling units.

South Africa says it intends to build new nuclear plants and increase the amount of electricity generated by nuclear power to 9.6 GW by 2030.

For the second year in a row, Japan’s 10 electric utilities have suffered a combined $15 billion loss in revenue due to the shutdown of Japan’s nuclear reactors and the urgent need to replace nuclear electricity with power generated from expensive imported natural gas.

Scotland has given approval for the construction of an offshore, 7-megawatt, 640 foot tall, prototype wind turbine. The installation will be built by South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries. Samsung officials said the tower will be used to test new designs of wind turbines with the aim of increasing their efficiency.

Morocco has officially launched the construction of a 160-megawatt solar power plant near the desert city of Ouarzazate, the first in a series of vast solar projects planned in the country. The thermo-solar plant will cost 7 billion dirhams (630 million euros) and is expected to be complete in 2015. It is the first of a two-phase project, due for completion in 2020, that is expected to cover 3,000 hectares and have a generation capacity of 500 megawatts, enough to met the electricity needs of Ouarzazate’s 1.5 million residents.

Renewable energy accounts for 5.25% of Chile’s electricity supply. Currently there are 68.3 MW worth of solar projects are currently under construction in the South American country.

The World Trade Organization’s appeal body has upheld complaints from the EU and Japan that The Canadian province of Ontario’s program to promote renewable energy use violates international trade rules. The appeal process upheld an earlier ruling that the program to encourage the development of wind and solar power discriminates against foreign firms because Ontario’s Green Energy Act mandates that a certain percentage of solar and wind components be manufactured within the province.

The US Department of Energy plans to award up to $20 million for research on methane hydrate deposits. The projects will focus on the economic viability of extracting energy from these deposits below the ocean floor.

The International Energy Agency says that natural gas consumption in Europe is not likely to increase much in the near future.

Russian energy company Gazprom has been given approval by the government to develop the estimated 63.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the country’s Arctic region.

Exxon and Norway’s Statoil announced they are developing a new field in the Gulf of Mexico which could hold six billion barrels of oil. The oil bearing rock is located more than five miles below the ocean’s surface and would be one of the first ultra-deep fields. Initial production at the modest rate of 34,000 b/d is expected in 2016.

The Canadian province of Alberta announced that production from its oil sands increased by 10% to 1.9 million barrels per day last year and will double to 3.8 million by 2022. Investment in the oil sands has been slowing lately due to the availability of cheaper tight oil from the US states of North Dakota and Montana.

Oil reserves in the northern US plains are nearly double previous estimates, the US Geological Survey said. For natural gas, the reserve estimate is almost triple what was reported five years ago. The oil is now estimated at 7.8 billion barrels and the natural gas at almost 7 trillion cubic feet. The US is a world leader in natural gas reserves but imports most of its oil from Canada.

Saudi Arabia plans to increase its oil production capacity from the current 12.5 million barrels a day to 15 million barrels a day by 2020. The desert kingdom has a fifth of the world’s proven oil reserves and is the largest oil producer, and exporter of petroleum liquids, in the world. By increasing total production to 15 million barrels a day, Saudi Arabia will be able to increase exports to 10 million barrels a day. In an attempt to reduce domestic consumption of oil, Saudi Arabia has been motivated to invest in renewable energies, pledging nearly $110 billion in order to install 41 GW of solar energy capacity by 2032.

China is considering taxing resource consumption including that of coal as a means of reducing consumption. In November Beijing announced a tax on gas and oil based on the value rather than the volume of production. The tax did not apply to coal however. In March, the government announced that it would attempt to cap coal production at 4 billion tons per year by 2015.

The African country of Tanzania announced it has over 1 billion tonnes of coal reserves.

Households in the UK have seen their annual energy increase by 29% or over £300 over the past three years. Figures released by the energy watchdog Ofgem found a typical yearly fuel bill for heat and electricity now stands at £1,420.

The Panamanian government has ordered schools to close and government offices to reduce their opening hours as the country suffers from a power shortage caused by drought for a third of the country. In addition businesses will be forced to reduce hours of operation and turn off their air conditioning between 11 am and 3 pm. Panama derives more than half of its energy from hydroelectric power and a lack of rain has hit the supply hard. Hydroelectric power accounted for almost 60% of Panama’s electricity generation in 2010.

with h/t Tom Whipple