In its latest Energy Outlook to 2040, BP forecasts global energy demand will grow by a third because of fast growth in developing economies. By that date, crude oil will supply a quarter of this demand. natural gas will overtake coal as the second largest source of energy and renewable energy sources will continue to be the fastest-growing fuel source, providing about 14% of our energy needs. Together, oil and natural gas will account for over half of the world’s energy use in 2040. This means global demand for energy will be met by the most diverse fuel mix we have ever seen. BP predicts electric cars will comprise about 15% of the total by 2040 but account for 30% of the passenger vehicle use because of the higher intensity with which they will be used. Oil demand and supply is expected to grow in the short term, with the transportation sector accounting for half of this growth. Automobiles and motorbikes will only see small increases in petrol consumption over the next few decades, but air, marine, rail and trucks are expected to drive demand.

The International Energy Agency predicts over the next 15 years China will overtake the US as the world’s largest nuclear nation. Currently there are about 60 nuclear power plants under construction globally and more than one-third of them are in China. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said China is learning by doing, bringing nuclear construction and operating costs down and therefore is now ready to export its technology. Becoming much more cost effective than others, China is beginning to challenge the established nuclear exporters such as the US, Japan, Korea and France. The IEA expects nuclear power capacity in China to make up 4% of the country’s total power supply in 2040. Between now and then, nuclear capacity in the Asian country is forecast to more than triple from 32.5 gigawatts (GW) to 127.5 GW.

The Financial Review writes about how South Australia is the great global experiment in renewable energy.

Renewable energy produced 18% of all electricity in the US in 2017. This included solar, wind, and hydroelectric dams. Together natural gas and renewables generated 50% of the country’s electric power last year. This data is from Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2018 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook. tells us how batteries and inverters work with solar energy systems.

China said it will use its substantial stockpile of corn and grain to expand the production and consumption of biofuels, such as ethanol. Last year China announced a plan for nationwide use of E10 gasoline by 2020. If China meets this target it would become the worlds third-largest ethanol consumer, behind the US and Brazil. China intends to produce commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol by 2025.

Research and Markets forecasts the global market for municipal waste-to-energy technologies will reach $41.5 billion by 2021. Asia offers the greatest opportunities for growth in the next few years followed by Europe and The Americas.  In terms of technologies used, Combustion Technology will continue to dominate the market.

BP forecasts the total global passenger vehicle fleet will nearly double to 2 billion cars by 2040, including more than 320 million EVs, up from roughly 3 million today. By 2040 EVs would comprise 15% of the global passenger fleet compared with about 1% today. See Shared, Autonomous EVs Will Help Drive to Peak Oil Before 2040.

Mining and metals business intelligence firm CRU predicts global battery electric, plug-in hybrid electric, and hybrid electric sales will increase to 42 million vehicles worldwide by 2030. From a share of 4% in 2017, CRU expects electric vehicles to account for 30% of the global passenger vehicle fleet by 2030. The increased demand for EVs will result in an increased demand for aluminum since plug-in hybrid and full battery electric vehicles use 25-27% more aluminum than the typical internal combustion engine car.

China has lowered its subsidies for many electric cars and plug-in hybrids by about 30%. The changes to the program last through June 11. The government will re-examine the subsidies after assessing sales trends. Local governments are also expected to lower their subsidies to manufacturers. For an electric car with a range of 200-250 kilometers (km) per charge, the subsidy dropped to US$3,787 from US$5,681. The minimum range to qualify for subsidies rose to 150 km (93 miles) per charge from 100 km (62 miles).


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