Cal on February 20th, 2018

Cal on February 19th, 2018

Projected Global Transportation Demand to 1940 By Transportation Type

 

 

 

Source: ExxonMobile Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

 

Note: “Heavy Duty” refers to commercial vehicles like large trucks and buses; “Light Duty” refers to passenger vehicles such as cars, SUVs and light trucks. With the advent of electric vehicles and more efficient internal combustion engines, ExxonMobile predicts the demand for gasoline and diesel fuel will begin to decline by 2030.

Cal on February 19th, 2018

Cal on February 18th, 2018

Cal on February 17th, 2018

In its latest Energy Outlook to 2040, ExxonMobile projects global transportation-related energy demand will increase by close to 30% by 2040. At the same time, total miles traveled per year by cars, sport utility vehicles and light trucks will increase about 60%. Exxon predicts a rise in electric vehicles as well as efficiency improvements in conventional engines, both trends likely leading to a peak in gasoline and diesel use by the world’s light-duty vehicle fleet by 2030.  Full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-only vehicles will comprise about 40% of global light-duty vehicle sales in 2040. However, crude oil will continue to play a leading role in the world’s energy mix because of growing demand from commercial transportation and the chemical sector. By 2040 heavy-duty vehicle growth will the largest transportation sector by volume, but aviation will grow by the largest percentage. Motorcycles, which offer a lower-cost entry point to personal mobility, will see particularly high ownership in the Asia-Pacific region.

Other findings from ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook:

In 2040, crude oil and natural gas will continue to supply about 55% of the world’s energy needs.

The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall to less than 30% in 2040.

Nuclear and renewable energy sources are likely to account for nearly 40% of the growth in global energy demand to 2040.

Iceland could soon be facing an energy shortage as cryptocurrency mining (eg. bitcoin) soaks up its electricity production. The electricity demand of cryptocurrrency servers on the island now exceed Icelanders’ own private energy consumption. Energy producers fear that they won’t be able to keep up with rising demands, if Iceland continues to attract new companies bidding on the success of cryptocurrencies. The economics of bitcoin mining mean that most miners need access to reliable and very cheap electric power on the order of two or three cents per kilowatt hour. As a result, a lot of firms are migrating to countries with cheap power prices. ”Johann Snorri Sigurbergsson, a spokesman for Icelandic energy producer HS Orka, commented:

“There was a lot of talk about data centers in Iceland about five years ago, but it was a slow start. But six months ago, interest suddenly began to spike. And over the last three months, we have received about one call per day from foreign companies interested in setting up data mining projects here. If all these projects are realized, we won’t have enough energy for the island.”

See The Telegraph, Iceland set to use more energy mining Bitcoin than powering homes

WindEurope reports the European Union added almost 16 gigawatts (GW) of onshore and offshore wind capacity in 2017. Onshore capacity increased by 12.5 GW and offshore grew by 3.1 GW. Last year wind accounted for 12% of Europe’s electricity.

Prices at wind auctions in India appear to have bottomed out. The latest auction, the largest so far in the South Asian country, did not produce lower bids as has been the trend for the at least the past year. The 2,000 MW auction attracted bids of Rs 2.44 and Rs 2.45 per unit. The lowest so far was Rs 2.43 per unit at a sale conducted in December 2017.

Dubai is building a facility to produce hydrogen from solar energy. The facility, to be located at the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, will use the hydrogen to power fuel cell vehicles and for industrial purposes.

The UK Rail Safety and Standards Board is working with French firm Alstrom to bring a hydrogen powered train to the UK in 2020. Alstom has developed a hydrogen-powered train that is currently operating in Germany. The UK government wants to replace all existing diesel powered trains with hydrogen and other alternative fuels by 2040.

SSAB, a leading steelmaker in Sweden, announced it will be constructing a new steel making facility that will be powered by hydrogen fuel cells. The new plant is set to begin tests between 2020 and 2024. After the testing phase, the company plans to scale the facility up to a demonstration plant. SSAB predicts that the plant will be ready for full production by 2035.

The Australian state of South Australia will have its first hydrogen plant. To be located in Port Lincoln, construction will begin in the next few months. The plant will be making use of both wind and solar energy to produce hydrogen fuel. The hydrogen will be used to generate electricity that will be fed into Australia’s energy grid. Australia has hopes of becoming a prominent supplier of hydrogen fuel in the coming years and eventually supplying countries like Japan with the hydrogen they need to power their fuel cell networks.

MIT Technology Review writes about the self-driving revolution in the auto industry.

New Holland Agriculture is partnering with California wine producer E. & J. Gallo Winery in a pilot project to test its autonomous tractor in vineyards. The objective of the project is to obtain enough information to enable these vehicles to meet the real-world requirements of winegrowers. The tractor is an unmanned vehicle that is fully autonomous and can be monitored and controlled via a desktop computer or via a portable tablet interface.

 

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Cal on February 17th, 2018

Cal on February 15th, 2018

Cal on February 14th, 2018

Russia is sending its highest quality crude oil to China in its battle for market share on the prized Asian market. As a result, European petroleum refiners are being left with lower-quality imports from Russia and are now reviewing how much Russian crude they would buy and at what price. The quality of Russia’s Urals crude grade has deteriorated so much that some European refiners are considering renegotiating supplies and prices.

Gazprom announced two thirds of the Power of Siberia pipeline to transport Siberian natural gas to Russian Far East and China is now complete. 1,480 kilometers of pipe is now in place from the Chayandinskoye gas field to the Chinese border. The pipeline is expected to start delivering Russian gas to China in December, 2019. The US$400 billion 30 year contract between the two countries guarantees China 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. By 2-35 Russia expects to supply 13% of China’s gas consumption.

In Tajikistan in Central Asia, construction work has resumed on a natural gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan to China. Funding for the building work is being provided by China. This pipeline has a designed capacity of 25-30 billion cubic meters of gas per year and will become the fourth and last planned strand of a network of routes carrying the fuel from Turkmenistan to China. Once completed, the pipeline would put China in a position to import up to around 65 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas annually.

The Guyana−Suriname basin off the Atlantic coast of South America is estimated to hold around 12 billion barrels of crude oil.

The African country of Kenya will start offering land at lower cost to attract investors to set up renewable energy projects as it moves to introduce competitive auctions in the sector with the aim of cutting electricity prices. This inducement is designed to cushion investors from losses since the proposed auctions will only favour contractors offering low electricity prices. Energy Principal Secretary Joseph Njoroge said:

“This will reduce the risks for investors as we pursue lower consumer power prices,” and added that the State would also help fund construction of site substations for tendered projects.

Currently, more than 60 countries have embraced competitive auctions for wind and solar projects, including Europe, Canada, India, South Africa, Morocco, Brazil, Zambia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Last year, for the first time, the European Union generated more electricity from renewable sources (wind, solar and biomass) than from coal.

Dubai Electricity & Water Authority announced it will spend US$22 billion on energy projects over the next five years, focusing on natural gas turbines, solar power and energy storage facilities. Chief Executive Officer Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer said:

“Our strategy is 75 percent renewable energy by 2050. By 2020 we will achieve more than our target. Our target is 7 percent but I think we will achieve 8 to 9 percent.”

A new study from Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that the sale of electric buses globally will go up to 1.2 million by 2025.  This will represent about half of the world’s bus fleet. Virtually all of these buses will be sold in China. Last year 386,000 of these buses were sold. The BNEF study found that all-electric buses can offer lower total cost of ownership through their vehicle lifecycles. The cost of fuel and maintenance expenses can be much lower. Electric buses are much easier to maintain and require less parts replacement than diesel- or natural gas-powered buses.

 

German automaker Porsche plans to invest more than €6 billion (US$7.5 billion) in electromobility by 2022, focusing on both plug-in hybrids and purely electric vehicles. The company says its purely electric Mission E sports car will offer a range of 500 kilometers (311 miles) and fast charging will take only 15 minutes for 400 kilometers of range.

 

 

 

with h/t Tom Whipple

 

 

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